Background and Objective: Safety issues of natural gas pipelines have become an important issue in recent years. In this regard, risk analysis of gas pipelines has received attention, and approaches related to the identification and determination of risks of natural gas pipelines, especially the assessment and quantitative analysis of gas pipeline risks, have become an important issue. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of modeling the risks of the gas industry distribution process using Bayesian networks.
Materials and Methods: This study is applied in terms of purpose and is classified as a mixed-method study in terms of data collection and analysis methods. The statistical population of the research consists of experts and specialists of the Kermanshah Province Gar Company, among whom 30 people were selected through purposive sampling to participate in the research. The required data were collected in the qualitative part using semi-structured individual interviews and in the quantitative part using a questionnaire. Thematic analysis method was used for qualitative data analysis and Bayesian networks method was used for quantitative data analysis.
Results: The results of sensitivity analysis showed that gas pressure gauge, connections, quality of maintenance staff, filters and maintenance strategy have the greatest impact on reliability, respectively.
Conclusion: The performance of a complex technological system depends on the interaction of technical, human, organizational, social, and environmental factors. The present study provided an integrated framework for assessing the potential reliability and risk in gas distribution units by considering technical, human and organizational criteria.